Pentagon Puts AUKUS Submarine Program Under Review

 

The Pentagon has launched a review of the U.S.-Australia-UK nuclear submarine technology-transfer and purchase agreement (AUKUS), which was negotiated by the Biden administration in 2021. The deal calls for the U.S. to sell the Australian government up to five Virginia-class nuclear attack submarines beginning in the 2030s. 

The program could have benefits for all parties. For Australia, it promises a major upgrade in defensive capability; for the U.S., it means access to basing and sub repair facilities on Australian territory, as well as five more allied attack subs to call on in time of need. For the UK, Australia would become a long-term partner in the construction of a future class of British attack subs from the 2030s onward. 

The downside of the deal for the United States is its potential drag on U.S. Navy fleet size. The Virginia-class and Columbia-class sub programs are mission-critical for the U.S. Navy, and the two yards that build these subs - GD Electric Boat and HII Newport News - are behind schedule. In addition, the Navy's public shipyards have been challenged in keeping up with submarine maintenance, reducing availability. If the U.S. submarine industrial base could not replace the AUKUS boats on time, these subs would be subtracted from U.S. Navy fleet growth. For Australia, the downside is the high cost burden of a full-scale nuclear submarine program, from acquisition through crewing and sustainment. 

As of 2023, the initial plan was for the U.S. to sell two secondhand Block IV Virginia-class attack submarines from U.S. Navy inventory in 2032 and 2035, plus one more new Block VII hull in 2038. The deal currently calls for up to five hulls, and Australia made the first $500 million down payment on that plan in March 2025. 

Predictions of the program's cancellation have circulated since the Trump administration took office in February, and those forecasts may now appear prescient. According to the Financial Times, the Defense Department has appointed undersecretary of defense for policy Elbridge Colby to conduct a review of the program; the Pentagon has confirmed the news to multiple outlets. 

"The Department is reviewing AUKUS as part of ensuring that this initiative of the previous Administration is aligned with the President’s America First agenda," a Pentagon official told USNI. "This means ensuring the highest readiness of our servicemembers, that allies step up fully to do their part for collective defense, and that the defense industrial base is meeting our needs."

Last year, Colby expressed ambivalence about the program and suggested a factual, empirical evaluation was needed. "In principle it’s a great idea. But I’ve been very skeptical in practice," he said in a social media message. "But if AUKUS can help us get more [subs] in the right place and time, then great."