Russian Mediterranean "Flotilla" Sinks to a Single Submarine

 

Based on the dedicated efforts of open source information gatherers, particularly @KaptainLOMA, @italmilradar and @key2med observing from atop the Rock of Gibraltar, it can be assessed that the visible Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean will sink this week to just a single submarine, supplemented by its lonely tugboat escort and the intelligence-collection Project 864 vessel Viktor Leonov.

The Russian Kilo Class submarine RFS Novorossiksk (B261), which used to be a frequent presence in the Mediterranean, came back though the English Channel from the Baltic on June 25. The boat then slipped through the Straits of Gibraltar to duties unknown, but supported from afar by the Goryn Class tug Yakov Grebelskiy. The submarine appears to have operated through most of July off Libya and the Levant, based on the position of its escorting tug and the tracks of NATO submarine-hunting P-8 aircraft.

Having spent much of June loitering off the coast of Syria providing cover for the stragglers of the Russian presence, Steregushchy Class corvette RFS Soobrazitelny (F531) left the Mediterranean on July 3, following the familiar track back to the Baltic. As she left, her sister ship RFS Boiky (F532) entered the Mediterranean a few days later on July 9, escorting the well-known arms carriers Sparta and tanker General Skobelev en route to Tartus.

RFS Boiky (F532), Sparta and the tanker General Skobelev were last spotted on their return journey between Malta and Sicily on August 3. If this group of ships conforms to pattern, they may refuel at sea off Al Hoceima on the Moroccan coast, replenishing from the Russian civilian oiler Vyazma, before passing westwards through the Straits of Gibraltar.

This will then leave the Kilo Class submarine RFS Novorossiksk as the only Russian naval vessel in the Mediterranean, at a time when the US carrier strike group led by USS George Washington (CVN-73) is operating at full tempo in the Timor Sea with a large NATO escort complement.

RMNS Rabhi shadowing Russian oiler Vyazma on June 22 (Royal Moroccan Navy)

The anchorage used by the Russians is closely monitored by the Royal Moroccan Navy vessels operating out of Al Hoceima, most notably by PR-72P Class patrol boat RMNS Rabhi (P310). The Russians are also likely to have used up their credit of port visits elsewhere in the Mediterranean. The final Russian foothold on Tartus as a support base appears to have fallen away with the takeover on July 13 by DP World of full management rights for the port, held since 2019 by the Russian company OAO Stroytransgaz.

Among its many purposes, the Russian Navy had used Tartus as a way station on its supply route to West Africa; to compensate, Russia last month signed a visiting forces agreement with Benin, to better support its Africa Corps operations. The Russian Navy has also sought to move forward with its plans for a presence in in the Red Sea. But this latter intent appears to be fading after the proposed locations in Port Sudan were hit by a rebel drone strike on May 6.

If this was not enough bad news for the Russian fleet, the Udaloy Class destroyer RFS Vice Admiral Kulakov (D626) had to fend off a drone threat on July 14 in the Baltic Sea. The mysterious limpet mine explosions on dark fleet tankers shipping sanctioned Russian oil have continued, with an attack on July 16 against the formerly Djibouti-flagged Aframax Pushpa (IMO: 9332810). Finally but significantly, the annual Navy Day Parade at St. Petersburg scheduled for July 27 - always a proud day for the Russian Fleet - was cancelled, presumably because of the plausible risk of Ukrainian drone strikes.