Retailers Predict Continued Declines for Container Imports Through Q1 2026
The National Retail Federation, an industry trade group, issued its monthly report on expected import volumes through the major U.S. container ports, projecting that volumes will fall below two million TEU per month and continue a steady decline through the first quarter of 2026. With tariff uncertainty continuing but most holiday merchandise already in stores or warehouses, it projects that import cargo volume will see the usual end-of-year slowdown in November and December, but with the recent reductions in tariffs will increase slightly from earlier forecasts.
“We’ve spent most of the year worried about the impact of tariffs on both inflation and the supply chain, but the holiday season is here and mitigation efforts appear to have paid off,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy.
The NRF believes that retailers have already stocked up for the season, front-loading their imports to beat some of the tariff uncertainties and to take advantage of earlier pauses in the tariff program. Saying that retailers have inventory and that the consumer overall remains positive, the NRF issued its forecast for 2025 holiday sales, saying they will increase between 3.7 and 4.2 percent compared with 2024. It would be the first time U.S. holiday season sales have topped $1 billion.
The NRF’s Global Port Tracker projects that September 2025 was the last month with container import volumes above two million TEU. It forecasts the final number for October, when the ports have all released data, will be at 1.99 million TEU and will slide to 1.85 million TEU in November and 1.75 million TEU in December.
November and December, the NRF notes, would be the slowest months of 2025. December, based on its forecast, would have the lowest volumes since 1.62 million TEU in March 2023. In addition to month-to-month sequential declines, the report shows year-over-year declines of between 11.5 percent and nearly 18 percent.
Traditionally, the last two months of the year are slow, but the large year-over-year declines the report states are partly because imports in late 2024 were elevated by concerns over port strikes. In addition, this year’s tariff-driven front-loading pulled up late-year cargo.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said the on-again, off-again tariff policy has made long-term planning difficult for importers and ocean carriers alike. “These conditions make market forecasting highly uncertain,” said Hackett. “Our trade outlook is for a small decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026.”
The NRF forecasts that retail imports will finish 2025 down more than two percent versus 2024. They forecast a total of 24.9 million TEU, down from 25.5 million TEU in 2025.
They expect that the declines will continue into 2026. January 2026 is forecast at 1.98 million TEU, down 11.1 percent year-over-year; February at 1.85 million TEU, down 9 percent, and March at 1.79 million TEU, down 16.7 percent.