Study Links Offshore Oil to Increased Conflict

A study published in the journal Energy Research and Social Science suggests that the growth of offshore drilling around the world has led to an increase in maritime disputes, sometimes involving violence between states.

“It’s someone saying, “I want this and I’m willing to fight you for it” or showing through their actions they’re willing to fight, so maybe moving a naval ship into the area, or actually firing weapons,” Elizabeth Nyman, the study’s author and political scientist at the University of Louisiana, told the Washington Post.

Nyman evaluated offshore oil production technology and highlights a tipping point in history in 1947 when it was first successfully demonstrated that an offshore platform could operate out of sight of the shore. Before this time, the idea of extracting reserves out to sea was theoretical, so there was less need to pay intense attention to offshore reserves and national boundaries in the sea.

After that, though, Nyman cites an increase in maritime disputes around the world. “These findings have interesting implications for the future of energy politics research,” says Nyman in the study. “Oil is and will remain an important part of the global economy, with the developing world increasing its consumption and the developed world continuing its relatively high rate of use. It is, however, also a finite resource, and both states and industry alike must continue to seek out new reserves and develop new technologies to access existing reserves.” 

Offshore development hasn’t become as economically dominant to a state as territorial resources, but more states are turning and will turn to offshore development as territorial resources run out, says Nyman. “Democracies and dictatorships alike – are likely to consider or use force to protect these resources.” Of particular interest in this respect is the South China Sea and the Arctic, suggested Nyman in the Washington Post.

The study is available here.