Middle East Political Unrest and Implications for the Suez Canal

Recent events in the Middle East suggest that the Suez Canal has become a target for groups that oppose the government of Egypt that earns some US$5-billion per annum from canal transit fees. A disruption of ship traffic separates the Egyptian government from a reliable and important source of revenue, in turn disrupting government services that include schools, police and army. The Suez situation is compounded by political turmoil in Syria that has elicited the presence of foreign navy vessels in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, heightening the possibility of further political turmoil that may spread across the Middle East.

The 6-day war of 1967 closed the Suez Canal for several years, diverting ship traffic via Cape Town, South Africa and the Panama Canal. Another closure of or long-term disruption of navigation through the Suez Canal would again divert much east-west ship traffic via Cape Town and/or the Panama Canal. Political tensions have been simmering across the Middle East for several years, increasing the likelihood of the Suez Canal becoming a target. Compounding Middle Eastern political turmoil, the ship transportation sector underwent an economic upheaval due China’s logistics sector driving down the cost of moving containers across the ocean.

As a result, only the largest ships carrying an almost a capacity load of containers may sail at a profit. Except that Class E and triple-E ships are too large to sail through the Panama Canal and will need to sail via Cape Town. Smaller Panamax ships carrying east-west trade via the Panama Canal would operate at a loss. While plans to build a navigation-canal across Nicaragua capable of transiting the largest ships afloat are underway, the completion and opening of that canal are many years away. Revised theories of global warming hold little promise of year round trans-Arctic navigation.

Middle Eastern Pumped Barge Canal:

Prior to the construction of the Suez Canal, British surveyors examined a possible canal route between the Gulf of Aqaba and the Mediterranean. There has been some recent renewed interest in and discussion about connecting the Gulf of Aqaba to the Dead Sea, via a possible navigation canal. While such a link has political support in Jordan, it has both proponents and opponents located inside Israel. A possible barge canal built across Israel would require the pumping of seawater from the Mediterranean to higher elevation to assure navigation through elevated sections of the canal. Such a project would require:

Access to competitively priced nuclear-electric power

ship propellers operating as high-volume water pumps

corrosion-resistant pipelines carrying seawater

ocean capable barges carrying containers

advances in coupling barges into ocean capable trains

Support from the governments and citizens of Israel and Jordan

Massive future growth in container traffic through the Suez Canal

Management of the Somali pirate problem

While there may be scope to connect a pumped barge navigation canal between the Nile River and either of both of the Red Sea and/or the Gulf of Suez, any future political upheaval in Egypt would have the potential to halt maritime traffic between the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea. The possible future prospect of 2-different navigation canals in different countries reduces the risk of a total disruption of maritime traffic between the Red and Mediterranean Seas.

East-West Barge Traffic:

Many years ago, the Indian maritime sector operated a Danish built catamaran barge carrier that carried barges with ‘restricted’ hulls across the ocean between India and Muscat/Oman as well as the Persian Gulf. During the beginnings of maritime transportation, small flat-bottom vessels sailed on the Red, Mediterranean and Black Seas, also navigable rivers that emptied into these Seas. Ongoing research offers the potential of eventually adapting river barges to oceanic sailing by a variety of methods:

carrying the barges aboard a barge carrier

placing the barges inside a mobile wave barrier

adding removable/retractable outriggers to the barges

connecting the barges sideways using truss structures

The projected future volume of freight traffic that will need to sail between the Red and Mediterranean Seas promises to overwhelm the Suez Canal that will need future widening and deepening. A future parallel canal located in close proximity to the present canal could greatly increase the future movement of tonnage between the Red and Mediterranean Seas. However, the possibility of future Egyptian political upheaval could turn the canals into targets and maritime traffic. Future growth in international trade could justify the cost of a building a parallel main canal plus a pumped barge canal located to the east.

A second navigation passage located some 700-miles to the north of the Suez Canal would likely require the construction of parallel companion navigation canals between the Black Sea and the Aegean Sea. The projected future volume of ship traffic that will sail through the Bosporous and also the Dardanelles, rather than possible future political turmoil, would warrant the construction of such parallel canals. Earlier this year, a container ship broke apart and sank in the Red Sea. A ship breaking apart and sinking in any of the navigation passages in Egypt and Turkey would disrupt world trade.

Harry Valentine is a frequent contributor to the MarEx newsletter. He can be reached at [email protected] for comments and questions.